Wuliangye (000858): High probability of achieving the goal, grasping the chance of continued overfall

Wuliangye (000858): High probability of achieving the goal, grasping the chance of continued overfall

The non-crown epidemic has a small impact on high-end liquor. The terminal sales of Wuliangye before the holiday has reached 80% of the Spring Festival sales, and the company’s endogenous reform performance is continuously released, which will effectively hedge external influences and delay the improvement of the price point.After the epidemic is under control, the approval price is expected to start to increase substantially.

The company’s 20-year growth plan is rational, with plenty of room for adjustment, and its growth target of two or more revenues is guaranteed. At the same time, brand barriers have deepened in the thousand-dollar price band.

The EPS forecast for 19-21 is temporarily maintained4.

48, 5.

40 and 6.

23 yuan, maintaining a one-year target price of 165 yuan, the recent market panic has brought continuous decline, highlighting the value of buying points, it is recommended to grasp the opportunity for oversold.

Impact of epidemic situation: The impact of high-end liquor is small, and the terminal sales of Wuliangye before the festival has reached 80%.

According 杭州夜网论坛 to the close tracking of our post-holiday channels and terminals, the fermentation time of the epidemic has little effect on the consumption of pre-holiday liquor. The main impact is that after the Spring Festival, Wuliangye sold vigorously in the pre-holiday terminals. About 80% of the sales during the Spring Festival have been completed.Compared with annual estimates of 30-35%, post-holiday consumption is expected to have only a few effects.

At present, the distributor’s general inventory is only about half a month, and the channel inventory is light, but the rhythm of terminal inventory replenishment will improve.

The internal reform performance continued to be released, the company’s price point was delayed, and the approval price increased significantly after the epidemic was under control.

The company has entered the stage of full implementation of digital marketing 杭州夜网论坛 in 20 years, and the progress and effect of detailed management measures will continue to show. Despite the sudden emergence of the new crown epidemic and the need to face short-term external shocks, the internal reform momentum can continue to be released to ensure more accurateRealizing the deployment of resources, the expected management of dealers, the rhythm of delivery, and the red line control of prices will effectively hedge external influences.

In this context, we expect the company’s approval price to stand firm above 900 yuan, and good channel ecology can be maintained. It is expected that after the epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the company’s control measures will be implemented, and the approval price will gradually enter a substantial upward channel.

Company outlook: The existing guarantee to achieve the goals, the barriers of high-end brands will be further deepened after the stress test.

(1) The company’s 20-year planned income has increased by more than double digits and sales volume has increased by 5-8%. The growth plan is not high and there is a lot of room for adjustment. If necessary, it can further deepen employee diversity and incentive reform. Under the epidemic situation,The tasks for the whole year have been guaranteed.

In terms of quarters, the main shipments in the first quarter were completed before the holiday, and the impact was not significant. The inventory replenishment after the holiday was blocked. It is expected to affect the replenishment progress of some terminals in the second quarter, but the off-season ratio is low, and the company can sink through capillaries and enterprises.The increase of customers and the amount of the Dragon Boat Festival Mid-Autumn Festival hedging impact.

(2) Looking forward to 21 years, the company is expected to enjoy consumption recovery and high elastic growth under a low base in the first half of the year.

(3) What deserves further consideration and attention is that this epidemic has had a substantial and long-term substantial impact on the industry. Instead, it is a stress test on the operating capabilities of different wine companies. The stable and well-adjusted famous wine companies are subject to short-term shocks and have equal adjustment capacity and response capacity.Stronger, which will further strengthen Wuliangye’s barriers in the thousand-yuan price band, and harvest the continued heavy-volume distribution of high-end liquor.

Investment advice: The probability of achieving the goal is high, and the value buying point is gradually reduced. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of continuous oversold.

The short-term external impact of the epidemic will have a greater impact on high-end liquor, and the company ‘s internal reform forces will continue to be released. The target goal has a high probability of reaching the target. In the coming year, it is expected to have a high elastic growth at a low base and bring a thousand yuan price with Wuliangye.Brand barriers further deepen opportunities.

We maintain our EPS forecast for 19-21.

48, 5.

40 and 6.

23 yuan, the recent panic caused by the expected decline, currently only corresponds to 21 years.

7 times PE, the margin of safety is abundant, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of continued oversold and maintain a one-year target price of 165 yuan, corresponding to 30 times 20 years or 26 times PE in 21 years, and maintain the “strongly recommended -A” investment rating.

Risk warning: epidemic control progress, consumption is less than expected, refined control fails to meet expectations